I have been saying that this summer is going to tell the tale of market conditions. The market has shifted, and it happened relatively quickly. Summer is the season for new listings, and boy did we get new listings! As of July we had 731, a number that we haven’t seen since 2020 when we were shut down from working (we literally couldn’t show properties for awhile due to Covid restrictions) and prior to that, the Summer of 2019. For comparison, last July we had 484 listings so that over a 50% increase this July.
Active Listings
Additionally, our showings are down from previous summers. In July, there were 3.7 showings per listing in Summit County residential properties. Definitely better than June which was 2.4, but last July we were at 4.5 and in July 2022 we were at 4.1.
Showings Per Listing
That’s admittedly not a huge difference, but if you look at the data with a rolling 12 month analysis, you can see the trend line and how showings have decreased.
We had 123 properties close in July, which is similar to last summer’s 125 sales. This is a positive sign. The first six months of 2024 had very low sales volume, so July is a good data point that more sales are happening.
Sold Listings
The difference in the market is the amount of inventory. This July there were 731 available properties. Last July there were 484. Buyers now have almost twice the options.
Active Listings
With more inventory, months of inventory increases. Looking at rolling 3 month data, July MOI jumped to over 6 months.
Months of Supply
Data analysis from July 2022 – June 2023 v July 2023 – June 2024
We ran the latest trends packet, and this data is YOY comparing July 2022 – June 2023 v July 2023 – June 2024. This slicing of the data makes for an interesting comparison. Last summer wasn’t by any means a banner market. As I mentioned above, the difference between last summer and this summer is the amount of inventory creating competition which spreads out the buyer’s attention and demand.
The first half of 2024 was very slow on sales volume. You will see that using the comparison of these time periods, sales volume was down 35%! That was a surprise to me. Pricing remains steady. This is an indicator that will take longer to adjust. I don’t think pricing is going to drop, but it’s sure flattening and probably will continue to do so.
For the entire 2024 Q2 Market Trends report, click here! You will be able to see each individual neighborhood.
So is it a Buyer’s Market?
I’m going to say, “It’s close.” A Buyer’s market is typically defined as more than 6 months of inventory in a market. July stats show over six months of inventory on a monthly basis (6.9 months) and rolling 3-month data also has months of inventory over 6.
Months of Supply
However, note that May through July brought on a lot of new listings, so that new inventory is creating this high MOI data point.
New Listings
The chart from the YOY Trends analysis also shows MOI right at 6 months. The rest of the summer into fall (August through October) will either absorb that inventory and bring down the MOI, or if buyer activity remains very slow, it won’t absorb the inventory very quickly. When inventory is in the 4-6 month range, we consider that a balanced market. For now, I would say we are in a more balanced market, and not necessarily in a full Buyer’s market.
What Does this Mean for You?
Buyers:
You have more leverage and time than you have had in years. Get pre-approved and financing ready before you even begin to look at properties (which you should anyway!). In our business alone, we have had 3 buyers drop out of looking due to financing issues. Many properties are coming back on the market, and when I talk to other Realtors, the main reason I’m hearing for deals falling out of contract is financing. Banks are cracking down on qualifications, so ensure you have access to the money before getting in the game. Not every property is going to be a “deal.” The market is highly segmented based on location and the condition of the property. Turnkey properties continue to sell more quickly than those that need work. Closer to town and amenities sell more quickly than properties that are further away.
Sellers:
You are getting anxious, and we understand. Sometimes there isn’t anything wrong with your property. It’s simply a numbers game. Putting your best foot forward is the first step to ensuring that your property is “show-ready.” If possible, it should show like it’s featured in a magazine. Every showing is important as they are fewer than in the past. Second, you have to be realistic with your pricing. Testing the market, even a few months ago, was something that could be considered. Not today. If you are overpriced, you are not the next sale because you have competition. There isn’t any amount of marketing, staging, open houses, or internet ads that can overcome an overpriced listing right now. Buyers have the luxury of touring all the competition and making their own determination on what your property is worth.